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114

argument. You note that in the formula N+1/N+2 if
N is zero, that is if the new phenomenon has
never been observed at all, its probability is ½.
Mr. F. Y. Edgworth, who is a thinker of no inconsiderable
ability (notwithstanding his somewhat puerile delight in airing his contempt for my writings),
regards it as an important
basis for the probabilities, with the business of
insurance and all that, that of just one half of all
possible questions answerable by yes or no, “yes” is
the true answer. To talk of extracting gold from
sunbeams after that sounds rather flat.

The only security against utter nonsense in
this subject is to give up talking of probabilities
in connection with the doctrine of chances
and to talk instead of ratios of frequency
in the course of our future pertinent experience.

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