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122

toys in the boxes are dutiable. Because in
reasoning that the proportion of dutiable toys
in such a sample is roughly equal to that of
the toys in the boxes we shall be proceeding
according to a rule which would generally
lead us as near to the truth as any rule
could and which moreover if persisted
in, in this very case, would ultimately bring
us indefinitely near to the truth. And if
it be true that pretty nearly all the toys
are dutiable, then in almost all similar cases
the sixth toy would be found dutiable. But
we can know nothing more than this without further facts
to go upon. It may be, for example, that such
boxes invariably contain three toys of

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