41

70

Upon this same principle, if two hypotheses
present themselves, one of which can be
satisfactorily tested in two or three days, while
the testing of the other might occupy a
month, the former should be tried first, even
if its apparent likelihood is a good
deal less.

It is a very grave mistake to attach
much importance to the antecedent likelihood of
hypotheses, except in extreme cases; because
likelihoods are mostly merely
subjective, and have so little real value.
Every hypothesis should be put
to the test by forcing it to make verifiable
predictions. A hypothesis on which no