56

106

but after all it made my mind easy about a
number of possibilities that did not occur, and
even about this one for three days. So I had better
be content with my lot. This little parable is
intended to illustrate how even the pooh-pooh
argument, the weakest of all sound inductions,
does satisfy the essential condition of
saving me from surprises both positive and
negative; that is from the happening
of things not anticipated and the non-occurrence
of imaginary disasters.

The argument from the fulfillment of
predictions does still better. It may deceive
one sometimes; but if I am constantly
reasoning in this way, I shall get an early