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selects a box by a method calculated
in the long run to bring out one box as often
as another. He shakes up the box well and then putting
his hand into it grabs the first toy his hand touches,
which he examines as to its being dutiable or not, after which he then goes on in the same way with another box.
Now suppose that proceeding in this way the Inspector
has found the first five toys to be dutiable,
the question is what is the probability
that the sixth toy is so.

I will first give my answer to this problem,
secondly I will give Laplace's
presumable treatment of it, and thirdly
I will go on to show you that the latter is absurd.
My answer is that we are tolerably safe
in inferring that the great majority of