64

122

a kind not dutiable and that the fact that all the first
five drawn were dutiable is
simply an extraordinary coincidence.
How this may be we do not know, as
long as we do not know how the contents such boxes
are usually made up,— even in the long
run, to say nothing of this particular cargo.

The Laplacians reason, however, as
follows. They say that there might be in each
box either 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 or
no dutiable toys. These they say are simple
possible events. They lay great stress on
events being simple, although they never
tell us what they mean by it and appear
to call any events simple which they