78

148

It thus turns out that on this hypothesis, which is
certainly not so absurd as that of Laplace, that
the odds in favor of the sixth toy being dutiable
after the first five are found dutiable are only 7 to 3.
Common sense revolts against this. But we ought to have
made the constitutions of the universe equally possible. That
is, we ought to have neglected the fact of the toys being packed in
boxes of ten, which really has nothing to do with the matter and
have treated them as if they were packed in boxes of indefinitely
many toys. I have made the calculation for 25 in a box,
and the result is shown in the following table