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little relation to events which may transpire in November of 1984, it is safe to conclude that an independent Black candidacy ought to be dismissed out of hand today, and attempts to breathe life into such a campaign next year attacked as the suicidal attempt such a race would surely be.

Any political action whose chief effect is re-electing Ronald Reagan deserves the contempt of American Black people.

Let us focus then instead on the probabilities and possibilities of a Black candidate in next year's Democratic primaries and caucuses, on his or her chances to win sizeable numbers of delegates and to influence the selection of an eventual nominee and platform by the party.

Is anyone here talking of a Black person winning the nomination or General Election? If not, we may the proceed.

A May, 1983 poll in the Garth Analysis showed Jackson running third for the Democratic nomination, with 9% of the Democratic vote. He placed third behind Mondale, who won with 36% of the Democratic vote, and John Glenn, who placed second with 24%.

Since Blacks are as much as 20% of the total Democratic electorate, 9% of the total Democratic vote may not be encouraging. The Garth Analysis says that Jackson's candidacy would harm Mondale's chances, reducing Mondale's share of Black votes from 48 to 21%.^*

The most recent poll taken before this meeting that I could discover -- released in the August 29 issue of Newsweek magazine -- confirmed the effect of a campaign by Rev. Jackson.

^*The Garth Analysis, May, 1983