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doctrine of chances institutes no sound inquiry
into such inferences. Some writers on the subject
endeavor to judge of such inferences by the
principles of the calculus of probabilities; but
what they say on the subject is, as I can clearly
demonstrate, utterly worthless; and being so,
in so far as it is apt to be accepted as sound, it is most
mischievous. If a lady is afraid of going on board
a steamer, it is a good argument to say to her that
only one passage in thousands is accompanied
by any serious harm to a passenger, and that
she therefore ought not to hesitate to embark. But
to say to her that the doctrine of chances teaches what
it is wise to do in an individual case is a serious error
of logic. Such inference is of a kind concerning which the
doctrine of chances affords no direct knowledge.

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