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104

But in the sense in which probabilities can be
evaluated and made the subjects of mathematical
calculation, a probability is a ratio of frequency
in the long run of experience. This should never
for one instant be lost sight of; and you should
constantly ask yourself ‘Is there going to be any
such
experience in any way that can give
the particular probability spoken of any real
utility?’ The majority of treatises on probability
tell us that if a man who never heard of the
tides were to wander to some shore where
the tides are very noticeable and were to notice
that the tide rose in each one any number of successive half
days, say N for N half days then
the probability that it would rise on the next

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