69

130

of the causes after you once suppose know their antecedent
probabilities etc. are clearly
proportionate to the ways the known event
could have come about. The probability
of each proportion is then to be multiplied by
the probability in case of that proportion
of the sixth toy being dutiable,
in order to find the probability of its becoming
dutiable in that way; and these being summed
the total is the probability sought.

But I insist that a number that
has no practical use (giving “practical”
as wide a sense as you will) a number
which has no sort of practical use
simply has no meaning. And in particular
that the numerical probability of