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without ever dreaming of being called to account
for it. Nor is there any principle on which
we could distinguish between simple and
compound events. What is simple and what
compound depends on the wording of the
problem; and nothing else has anything to do
with the distinction. Now if you assume
that the different probabilities of a certain
event are equally possible, ipso facto the
different probabilities of certain compound
and disjunct events will not be equally
possible. Such an assumption is therefore
entirely arbitrary. There is just as much
reason for supposing the probabilities of
a disjunct event to be equally possible in