5

-5- -5-

Newsweek says a Jackson campaign would reduce Reuben Askew's black
vote by one percentage point, from 3 to 2%; Alan Cranston's share of black
votes would be cut in half, from 4 to 2%; John Glenn's black vote would be
cut from 15 to 9%; Gary Hart's one percent share of black votes would be
totally erased, and Walter Mondale's commanding 47% of black votes would
be reduced to 29%, the same figure as in the June Gallup poll I cited
earlier.

Only Ernest Hollins -- to whom Newsweek gives a modest 2% of black
votes -- would be unaffected by Jesse Jackson entering the Democratic
primary race.*

One final poll result. The Gallup Poll and the National Opinion
Research Center of Chicago have found that the numbers of Americans who
say in 1983 they will consider voting for a black candidate for President
are higher now than ever before.

Seventy-seven percent in the Gallup survey and 85% in the Chicago-
based poll said a Black candidate would get their consideration, if not
necessarily their vote.

That is a great increase, nonetheless, over previous years. As
recently as 1958, only 38% of Gallup's respondents would admit they would
vote for a black presidential candidate nominated by their party. Fifty-
three percent in 1958 would not vote for such a candidate, however, well-
qualified he happened to be.

Coincidentally, this same poll showed that a black vice-presidential
candidate would enhance the Democratic Party's appeal to party voters; a

Newsweek Magagine[Magazine], August 29, 1983, pp. 15