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gnox at Jun 05, 2018 07:30 PM

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I now come to the most important part of this
lecture. The calculus of probabilities proceeds entirely by
mathematical reasoning, that is to say by necessary reasoning.
Such inferences as it draws are necessary
inferences
. If it sounds incongruous to speak of
necessary inferences of probability, this is perhaps
merely an apparent incongruity not a real one. But if
it is a real incongruity it is because the word
probability ought not to be applied to ratios of frequency
which are no more subjective or modal, in their nature
than any other statistical averages. The use of the word
probability for the average frequency in the long
run of experience is a fault of a
much graver nature than ill-chosen expressions
usually are. It is a fault similar to that of measuring

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