Remarks prepared for delivery to the National Association of Black Journalists, The Fairmont Hotel, New Orleans, Louisiana, concerning a black presidential candidate, 1983 September 8

Copyright, 1983 By Julian Bond National Association of Black Journalists The Fairmont Hotel New Orleans, LA September 8, 1983

The argument can be easily made, almost too easily. Let me state the case for you. A Black American should run for president in 1984 because:

(A) the race itself will increase registration and make it more likely that Ronald Reagan and Reaganism will be defeated next year;

(B) a black person must run to prove to our children that Black people can have unlimited vision and ambition in America; not to run denies our youth their future; and

(C) running a Black candidate will force the white candidates to adopt "Black" positions on foreign and domestic issues, giving true weight to our numbres in the electorate.

Are these reasons why? Let us begin at the beginning.

[hand printed]: Not an exact text. [signed]: Julian Bond

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The single vote Frederick Douglass receive at the 1888 Republican Convention in Chicago marks him as the first Black to receive such attention from a major political party, but Douglass recorded another such first as well; sixteen years earlier, 1872, he was nominated in absentia for Vice-President by the newly-formed Equal Rights Party.

The Presidential nominee was Victoria Woodhull, a suffragist.

Douglass was chosen because of his reputation, and because he was Black. Symbolism was important, even then.

"We have the oppressed sex represented by Woodhull," said the man who nominated him. "We must have the oppressed race represented by Douglass.'"

Douglass declined the nomination, Ulysses S. Grant was nominated by the Republicans, Horace Greely by the Democrats, and Grant won.

One hundred and eleven years later, no issue has divided America's Black political community as much as the question of whether -- and if so, with whom -- Blacks ought to once again contest the Presidency in next year's Democratic primaries.

Former friends have become instant enemies as they dig in and settle down on various sides of this debaate.

Nominal allies have become at least temporary opponents as the benefits and dangers of running and not running are argued with at least as much heat as light.

Before any final conclusions are reached, it may be well to have the facts before us, to examine closely the history of past attempts to put a Black face in the White House or on a party ticket, to see whether or not the complicated arithmatic and rules of the Democratic Party's delegate selection process make such an attempt likely to return real benefits to all of Black America.

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That last point is absolutely essential -- what is under discussion in most places today is an assault on the Democratic Party's nomination for the Presidency of the United States, and not an independent race for the White House.

Nonetheless, a June 5 Gallup Poll tells us that an independent race for President in 1984 by the Reverend Jesse Jackson against expected Republican nominee Ronald Reagan and possible Democratic nominee Walter Mondale would certainly and easily guarantee a Reagan victory.

It is important to note that Jackson who disavowed an independent candidacy, much as John Anderson did, he then ended his race for the Republican nomination and faced Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan as an independent in November, 1980.

Crusades are difficult to contain; constant celebrity almost impossible to abandon voluntarily.

The Gallup figures show that an independent Jackson candidacy in the November, 1984 general election would reduce Reagan's expected share of Black votes from 10% of the total cast to 7%.

Walter Mondale's expected 80% share of Black votes would be reduced to only 29%, causing his defeat, and the Rev. Jackson would end in third place with 48% of Black votes cast.

Gallup's projections are that 41% of all voters would choose Reagan, giving him another four year lease on the Presidency and another four-year noose around Black people's necks; Mondale would finish a close second, a position important only in horseshoes, with 40% of the total vote, and Rev. Jackson would come in last place with 9% of all votes cast.*

In this scenario, Jackson's gains are Mondale's losses, and while we may properly acknowledge that polls taken in early June 1983 may have

Gallup Poll, June 5, 1983

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little relation to events which may transpire in November of 1984, it is safe to conclude that an independent Black candidacy ought to be dismissed out of hand today, and attempts to breathe life into such a campaign next year attacked as the suicidal attempt such a race would surely be.

Any political action whose chief effect is re-electing Ronald Reagan deserves the contempt of American Black people.

Let us focus then instead on the probabilities and possibilities of a Black candidate in next year's Democratic primaries and caucuses, on his or her chances to win sizeable numbers of delegates and to influence the selection of an eventual nominee and platform by the party.

Is anyone here talking of a Black person winning the nomination or General Election? If not, we may the proceed.

A May, 1983 poll in the Garth Analysis showed Jackson running third for the Democratic nomination, with 9% of the Democratic vote. He placed third behind Mondale, who won with 36% of the Democratic vote, and John Glenn, who placed second with 24%.

Since Blacks are as much as 20% of the total Democratic electorate, 9% of the total Democratic vote may not be encouraging. The Garth Analysis says that Jackson's candidacy would harm Mondale's chances, reducing Mondale's share of Black votes from 48 to 21%.^*

The most recent poll taken before this meeting that I could discover -- released in the August 29 issue of Newsweek magazine -- confirmed the effect of a campaign by Rev. Jackson.

^*The Garth Analysis, May, 1983

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Newsweek says a Jackson campaign would reduce Reuben Askew's black vote by one percentage point, from 3 to 2%; Alan Cranston's share of black votes would be cut in half, from 4 to 2%; John Glenn's black vote would be cut from 15 to 9%; Gary Hart's one percent share of black votes would be totally erased, and Walter Mondale's commanding 47% of black votes would be reduced to 29%, the same figure as in the June Gallup poll I cited earlier.

Only Ernest Hollins -- to whom Newsweek gives a modest 2% of black votes -- would be unaffected by Jesse Jackson entering the Democratic primary race.*

One final poll result. The Gallup Poll and the National Opinion Research Center of Chicago have found that the numbers of Americans who say in 1983 they will consider voting for a black candidate for President are higher now than ever before.

Seventy-seven percent in the Gallup survey and 85% in the Chicagobased poll said a Black candidate would get their consideration, if not necessarily their vote.

That is a great increase, nonetheless, over previous years. As recently as 1958, only 38% of Gallup's respondents would admit they would vote for a black presidential candidate nominated by their party. Fiftythree percent in 1958 would not vote for such a candidate, however, wellqualified he happened to be.

Coincidentally, this same poll showed that a black vice-presidential candidate would enhance the Democratic Party's appeal to party voters; a

Newsweek Magagine[Magazine], August 29, 1983, pp. 15