42

84

doctrine of chances institutes no sound inquiry
into such inferences. Some writers on the subject
endeavor to judge of such inferences by the
principles of the calculus of probabilities; but
what they say on the subject is, as I can clearly
demonstrate, utterly worthless; and being so,
in so far as it is apt to be accepted as sound, it is most
mischievous. If a lady is afraid of going on board
a steamer, it is a good argument to say to her that
only one passage in thousands is accompanied
by any serious harm to a passenger, and that
she therefore ought not to hesitate to embark. But
to say to her that the doctrine of chances teaches what
it is wise to do in an individual case is a serious error
of logic. Such inference is of a kind concerning which the
doctrine of chances affords no direct knowledge.

84

doctrine of chances institutes no [u]sound[/u] inquiry into such inferences.
Some writers on the subject endeavor to judge of such inferences by the principles of the calculus of probabilities; but what they say on the subject is, as I can clearly demonstrate, utterly worthless; and being so, in so far as it is apt to be accepted if sound, it is most mischievous.
If a lady is afraid of going on board a steamer, it is a good argument to say to her that only one passage in thousands is accompained by any serious harm to a passenger, and that she therefore ought not to hesitate to embark.
But to say to her that the [u]doctrine of chances teaches[/u] what it is wise to do in an individual case is a serious error of logic.
Such inference is of a kind concerning which the doctrine of chances affords no direct knowledge.